Turley Blog

I am sure by now that you know I am a little bit of a demographic nut, because I believe much of what has happened in the past 20 years was driven by technology, technical algorithms, ignorance and most importantly demographics. Recently I read an article that helps us to understand what will happen in the next 20 years – plus make you smart at a party. Understand the baseline: the United States has 300 million people; China has 1.3 billion; and India has roughly 1.2 billion.

Here are 5 Significant Perspectives from Resolve Lending, Inc. concerning our Demographic Future. *Nicholas Eberstadt – see full article

1. In the last 100 years our planet has gone from 1.6 billion people to 6 billion people. “This global population explosion was in reality a health explosion; people stopped dying like flies.” Yet in the past 50 years the explosion has reversed and slowed greatly due to a slowdown in reproduction. (Key - low fertility today leads to population aging tomorrow!)

2. China: I’m growing weary of hearing how great China has become. Take this into consideration. Over the next 20 years China will have a geriatrics catastrophe when 300,000,000 (current U.S population) citizens will be 55 years and older. China will grow old before they grow rich. If you think we have a healthcare crisis think about theirs!

3. Japan: This country has their struggles as well. “By 2030, the country’s median age will be above 52 years, with 30% of the total population being 65 or older. The economic implications of these impending changes are far from positive.”

4. India: “Thanks to the disproportionate growth of India's manpower pool, the country's dependency ratio will be falling, and the society will remain relatively youthful. Such changes in population structure could facilitate higher levels of national savings and investment -- and, thus, economic growth. In short, India appears to be a poster child for a potential demographic dividend.”

5. United States: “The United States will avoid the demographic stagnation and decline that faces most other OECD countries. The U.S. population, according to U.S. Census Bureau projections, is set to grow by 20 percent, or over 60 million people (from 310 million to 374 million), between 2010 and 2030. By such projections, the United States' population growth rate will nearly match India's.”

So why should you care? Well much of the gloom and doom does not take into consideration our strong growth possibilities for the United States, and one of our greatest intangible assets. Eberstadt’s final thought: “Humanity has one additional ‘secret weapon’ in accelerating growth in the years ahead: knowledge production and technological innovation. The revolutions of the past generation in health and life sciences, information technology, and materials science point to the sorts of opportunities that may lie ahead for improving productivity. More than ever before, research and development must be incentivized to reward risk takers.” Western thought has always accelerated in risk and remember we have always had fewer people than the rest of the globe.

I am bullish on the United States today and in our future!

Jeff

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66805/nicholas-eberstadt/the-demographic-future

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_populationd greed from every corner of the world.